NOAA Launches AI Weather Models for Faster, Sharper Forecasts

NOAA unveiled AI-driven forecasting systems that promise quicker, more accurate predictions at a fraction of computing cost. Officials switched them on Wednesday for use. The new models complement, not replace, physics-based staples like the Global Forecast System and GEFS. Trained on decades of analysis data, they cut compute needs by 91% to 99% and can extend forecast skill by up to a day. AIGFS produces a 16‑day outlook using just 0.3% of GFS resources and finishes in about 40 minutes. AIGEFS adds probabilistic guidance, while a Hybrid‑GEFS blends AI with traditional ensembles to capture uncertainty. NOAA still works on hurricane guidance and outcome diversity. Leaders cite lower costs but note the heavy energy footprint of model training.